Apple's iphone fold: foldable iphone's arrival faces sales reality check

Despite years of speculation, apple is reportedly planning to unveil its first foldable iPhone this year, potentially in December – a move that many analysts are questioning.

Analysts doubt early foldable iphone sales projections

While industry forecasts anticipated a significant market share for foldable devices in 2026, the scale of apple's potential entry into the fold is generating skepticism.

Bloomberg's Mark Gurman suggests the iPhone Fold will arrive later than the standard iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max, expected in September. This timeline raises concerns about whether apple can capture the projected 28% of global foldable sales for the year.

The consensus among experts is that while the iPhone Fold will undoubtedly generate considerable excitement among apple enthusiasts, achieving the ambitious 20 million unit sales target within a short timeframe presents challenges. Concerns about build quality compromises to maintain a relatively lower price point are also emerging.

Furthermore, the initial design of the iPhone Fold doesn't appear radically innovative, drawing comparisons to existing foldable devices from Google and Samsung. This similarity could make existing foldable users less inclined to switch.

Instead of aiming for an immediate market-dominating performance, a more realistic outlook suggests a moderate success for the first-generation iPhone Fold, with subsequent iterations having the potential to truly challenge Samsung’s dominance. The broader foldable market itself hasn’t yet reached the levels predicted by some research firms.

Consider the iPhone SE. It wasn’t a blockbuster, but it proved a solid seller. The first iPhone Fold may follow a similar path, establishing a foothold before evolving into a more refined product. The key now is a smooth launch and sales figures that at least surpass the initial popularity of products like the Vision Pro and HomePod.

The foldable market needs to demonstrate sustained growth, and it remains to be seen if apple's entry will be the catalyst many anticipate. The pressure is on to avoid a lukewarm reception, particularly given the lofty expectations surrounding the device.