Ai threatens 1.7 to 2.3 million spanish jobs, new study warns
The relentless march of artificial intelligence is no longer a distant threat – it’s reshaping Spain’s workforce with alarming speed. A new report from Funcas estimates a potential wipeout of between 1.7 and 2.3 million jobs over the next decade, primarily impacting mid-to-senior level administrative and technical roles.
A shocking acceleration
What’s particularly unsettling is the accelerated adoption of AI across Spanish businesses. Just in the first quarter of 2025, a staggering 21.1% of companies were already leveraging AI technology – a dramatic leap from 12.4% recorded in 2023. This isn't a gradual shift; it’s a sudden surge, and Funcas’ director of Financial Studies, Francisco Rodríguez, doesn’t mince words: ‘This acceleration is an indicator that the diffusion of this technology has reached a critical mass, and its effects on employment will begin to materialize noticeably in the coming years.’
The study, meticulously built on data from EPA, international exposure assessments, and experimental productivity evidence, paints a nuanced picture. While a pessimistic scenario envisions upwards of 3.5 million job losses, an optimistic projection caps the damage at around 700,000. It’s a range driven by the inherent uncertainty surrounding the pace of technological implementation and how swiftly companies will restructure their operations.
Spain’s position within the OECD – ranking 27.4% for AI adoption, compared to an average of 26% – is a key factor. Despite a lower overall automation risk (5.9% versus the OECD average of 12%), the nation faces a significant challenge. The report emphasizes that Spain’s occupational structure, heavily reliant on interpersonal and physical tasks, mitigates, but doesn’t eliminate, the risk of displacement. It’s a crucial distinction: Spain isn’t immune, merely potentially buffered.
However, the bleak forecast isn’t entirely without counterweights. Complementary effects – boosting productivity without outright job destruction – could impact approximately 2.8 to 3.5 million workers. Furthermore, the creation of new occupations, projected at 1.61 million between 2023 and 2033, offers a glimmer of hope, though access to these roles is largely tied to higher education levels. The crucial question remains: will the creation truly offset the destruction?
The focus is heavily concentrated in information-intensive sectors – particularly the IT sector (58.7%), followed by services (25.7%), industry (17.5%), and construction (11.4%). Companies utilizing AI demonstrate a 27% increase in productivity compared to their counterparts. Yet, this productivity boost is often mirrored by greater AI adoption, suggesting a reinforcing cycle rather than a purely technological effect. ‘Machine learning’ is identified as the technology driving the most significant productivity gains, while ‘voice and image recognition’ hasn't yet yielded statistically meaningful results.
This rapid deployment of AI is occurring amidst Spain’s remarkably strong labor market – boasting record employment levels (22.5 million people) and a fall below 10% unemployment for the first time since 2008. Funcas sees this as an opportunity to proactively manage the transition, emphasizing the need for targeted reskilling programs alongside incentives to support the emergence of new AI-related jobs. The key, they argue, is proactive policy – not passive observation.